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Prediction for CME (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-10T00:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33297/-1
CME Note: Wide CME associated with a long duration M1.2-class flare from Active Region 3814 (N15E10) seen predominantly to the northeast in SOHO C2 imagery and east-northeast in STEREO A COR2. The eruptive signature is seen as a large-broad scale destabilization seen as a surge-like brightening in SDO AIA 131, opening and brightening field lines in GOES SUVI 284 with additional dimming and an EUV wave to the north, and bright, high post-eruptive arcades seen best in SDO AIA 171/193/304. There is a data gap in real-time in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 at the start of the CME from approx. 2024-09-09T21:48Z to 2024-09-10T01:25Z. CME arrival detected by ACE starting at 2024-09-12T02:53Z. Increase in B_total to about 16nT with subsequent jump in B_total peaking at ~26nT at ~2024-09-12T09:35Z. This arrival is accompanied by an increase in velocity from ~360 km/s to ~420nT, followed by a second jump in velocity to ~550 km/s corresponding to the additional jumps in B_total. There is also an associated increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T02:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T14:16Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-10 04:37
 - Time at C2: 2024-09-10 00:23
 - Radial speed: 755.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N26E05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 632.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-12 14:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.90 hours)
Lead Time: 30.62 hour(s)
Difference: -11.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-09-10T20:16Z
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